Tuesday, 4 April 2017

Chart Analysis 4th of April 2017

Just a Quick Video of my Routine Chart Analysis

Wednesday, 8 March 2017


Webinar - The Beginning of Time from AIMS Stress Free Trading on Vimeo.

Recorded over 6 years ago. Introduction to AIMS Stress Free Trading Method.
Today we have refined this method and years of teaching have "taught" me a lot.
We trade Setup 1 now and our success rate is now over 66%. This video is the foundation of
AIMS Stress Free Trading

This video was NEVER shared outside our Members Only Forum. This is the FIRST time. 

Note: the video was available only for a limited time which ended on the 4th of April 17. 

Sunday, 5 March 2017

Do You Understand Your Method?

Simple vs Complex 

The more complex a trading system the more chances of finding ways to break rules. That is because complex systems usually have a larger number of rules. And often, the rules themselves are quite difficult to understand. So, complex systems or methods generate more "rules"  in quantity and the more rules you generate the more complex the process. Its a cycle. 

Simplify Simplify Simplify 

as once said by the great Albert Einstein. Because as long as you don't find a process "being simple" it is probably because, (assuming the method is relatively simple) you don't yet understand it. So, assuming you understand the method ,and perceive it as simple, chances are that it actually is simple and not just simple for you alone.

Hence simplification is our main objective. Not over simplification but just enough that fits our mental capabilities. Over simplification could be a result of generalisation and that may lead to fallacies.

The Simplest Method

The simplest of technical analysis is looking at the price without many additional indicators. It is performed by "simply" looking at the peaks and troughs of the price. You'd want to find its "obvious" trend direction and perhaps a little information about the "momentum" of the trend. One can find its momentum using a simple oscillator. (eWave or AIMS Wave e.g.). You can use a moving average for trend or even Elliott Wave analysis using our 10s to Elliott Wave Technique.

A Simple Trading Method

However looking at the price itself is more important. It leads to a form of analysis that is "logical" and makes sense. e.g. The most popular and very interesting way of analysis the market is looking at "supply and demand" zones or Support and resistance areas. Here you see price comes to a certain zone of price levels and it keeps bouncing off it.

If done correctly it is often a solid evidence that there is something there. That certain types or orders (whether buy or sell) sort of balance out at those levels and the opposing orders exceeds ... If we agree that prices usually trend upwards when the buyers "create a force" in that direction that outweighs the selling "forces" then that means that at any given time if prices trend upwards then the "balance" of forces is shifted towards the up side and vice versa.

So when the price reach those price levels/ a zone of price levels, where it gets stuck. We can infer that perhaps the "supply and demand" forces balance out at those levels. Now this is solid information and it can be used. e.g. if your system generates a buy signal and it happens to be just under a zone of resistance, creating a metaphorical ceiling" then it would be logical to filter that signal and wait and see whether price actually breaks past that "barrier".

Another form of trading is to simply look for patterns created by a set of indicators. Both are great but your success, longer time consistent success, would depend on your, repeat YOUR ability to remain disciplined. You can only find it easier to be disciplined, on and only, if you fully understand the method. If you fully understand the method, you understand your edge. You know the probabilities of your method. As such it would be ok to say, that you believe in your method. And why shouldn't you because you have done your back testing, and you know that the data suggest that you have a positive edge.

The Key

The key to success is discipline. And if you are disciplined and the analysis process is not too complex the chances of success increase.

AIMS The Hunt method, is the nectar of 7 years of trading experience on live accounts and interactions with several hundreds of people/traders.  The simpler the method , the slower the method, the more chances of creating "successful" traders. Period.

How to Make things Simpler and Easier

There is no need to make things more difficult than it really needs to be.

"Complex things are simple when you break them down." .......... Josh Kaufman
This is explained in more detail inside our forum. Its a method taught by Michael Douglas in his book Trading in the Zone. We adapted that concept and call it The T20 Principle. We simplify a trading method and start from there. More on this inside.... 

Saturday, 25 February 2017

Do I need to worry about Leverage or Margin?

Well, before we talk about leverage or margin and whether to use margin or not.

Let me address a rather more v.important aspect to this concept of trading, all of course, in my humble opinion.

None of the traders are ready for trading. That is why there are protections. I would consider myself lucky that I can find brokers who'd allow me trade a demo account with nearly the same prices and executions (executions really does not matter on the higher time frame though a pip above or below my po or SL is no issue there) Again, I'd like to stress on the fact that LEARNING TO TRADE CORRECTLY is a necessary requirement  before you decide to  trade a live account. Going for live account without first completing for instance 5 batches of T20 principle  would be, in my humble opinion, a very stupid and reckless thing to do. You'd rather give me your money.  :p

Trading is a skill that requires a lot of practice. Its a VERY lucrative skill but it requires practice. You must first make sure you have the following things.
1. A Trading Strategy which gives you an edge [aims methods have this covered]
2. Acquire an in depth understanding of the above.
3. Gain practical experience in the above.
4. Demo trade the strategy and maintain a discipline score for each trade and batch of 20 trades. Do at least 5 batches ( 5T20's)and maintain an average of 70% discipline score with none of the T20 batches less than 50% score (if a batch has less than 50% score, you might want to scratch that and repeat it).

This is a rough guide to How to become a Disciplined Trader. 

I'd like to suggest that in order to become a profitable trader you have to follow at least 2 steps.
1. Learn to Trade using a demo account.
2. Learn to trade using a live account.

Not so difficult to understand is it? Just two steps. Now, by demo I don't mean that you open a trade here and there and close it haphazardly. The idea is to recreate an experience and environment that is similar to the actual but without the RISK of losing money.  This would give you that "stress free state of mind" the one that is "Risk Free".

If you have not yet been able to keep at least a demo account and remained "disciplined" you cannot move forward. We see many players doing net Practice and they look fantastic but they fail miserably when it comes to "matches". [cricket analogy] 

Because during practice we lacked an important ingredient. FEAR/RISK. However to trade demo without Risk or FEAR factor is EXACTLY the purpose of Demo Trading. You want to perfect your skill so that it becomes "second nature". So, to become the best at what you do, you don't have to play as many matches as possible rather you practice as many hours as possible before you go for a match. So that you don't have to "think" what to do next during the live event, rather you KNOW exactly what to do without "thinking". Its your instinct.

[Are you telling me demo is waste of your time? then you don't believe in or does not understand the concept of Practice. And Yes, you have to write one beautiful Trading Plan, before you can trade, Else every trade will be classed as Zero Discipline Score] 

I'm trying to help the members who connect with me through Skype, and the hunt section of the forum, to become profitable by first becoming disciplined traders. In a way i'm selling the idea but the intent is purely to help. 

cheers and hope this helps a little...

ps: i don't care what leverage is there, its irrelevant until you have learned to trade correctly, you must first learn to trade. Just as I don't care how expensive is Formula 1 car, first I need to acquire the skill to be considered for driving one. And I don't have that skill so Formula 1 racing car is "of no value to me". Fun to watch though, those who can. 

Tuesday, 14 February 2017

Good Calls Today - AIMS The Hunt Skype Group

Today we had a few signals on different pairs. We shared it in our Skype Group and some of us enjoyed the profits/trades. First up is USD/JPY where we had a Hunt Buy Signal.

USD/JPY Hunt - The PC Cherry Signal. 

It was rather a simple setup. I saw it, shared it in Skype group. Everyone knows how to trade a certain signal. But some times you make a little adjustment in terms of target/take point area. In this case I only wanted to target the high of the box for slightly under 2R (3%) trade.

#USD/JPY Buy Signal. Nice 3% profit.  
The fun part is that I saw the signal at 2pm UK time, had the orders in, then went for a late lunch, picked children form school and when I returned around 4pm it had already hit its take profit level. #LetTheMoneyWork4U   Let the money work for you, don't work too hard. The best form of trading is when you can simply leave your chart because you have a plan that has 3 possible outcomes.

AIMS Trading Plan teaches you this technique of trade management. We always have 3 possible outcomes out of a trade. Each of the outcome has a 33% chance of happening. 33% losing trades (we call them rents) 33% winning trades and 33% break-even trades (I call them winning as you've made back your potential loss)

EUR/USD AIMS The Hunt Sell Signal 

Next up is the euro dollar pair where we had a sell signal. It was a bit iffy but after some deliberation I took it as there were signs it might go down. The signal was there to take. Its a Free Trade (where we have already banked profits and stop loss is at entry level so no risk there)

EUR/USD Sell Signal. No fuss sell signal simply set your orders and walk away. 

You can see that our charts have remained nearly the same in the past 7 years of trading. Thats when I started this blog, back in 2010. And still trading the same system? One would wonder why? ... IT WORKS...

CAD/JPY Buy Signal - AIMS The Hunt - Cherry Signal 

Here is another open trade where we are long using A Cherry Buy signal. Its a simple process, you  get a signal, you apply your filter rules. Most of the entry rules are coded into these indicators so you need not do that analysis. Its already encoded.

A good trade where we have taken half at 1R and letting it hit its take profit level. We'll see tomorrow.

Have a good night ...

CAD/JPY H4 Buy Signal - AIMS The Hunt - Cherry Buy Signal