Thursday, 18 April 2019

Happy Easter [The WAVE is Everywhere]

It's always good to take time off during these little breaks. Its best to completely go off charts and do something else.Its proven that it works wonders, no matter what field you're in. e.g. I might take a break and play football but those who play football for a living will take a break from football and do something else.

During the Trading Day: 
I usually finish trading session around 10 am and head to the gym. I usually make it between 10-11 am. I know it sounds like I'm not really working much going to gym in the morning. But that's not true. The type of work I do allows me to do it plus it helps me take that essential break away from charts. Its really important to go away from charts. And there is a reason behind it. Let me explain.

There is another reason why I hit the gym after  10 am is that it's the quietest time in the gym. (or so I thought). The gym has almost three times less number of people (or so I thought). So today I thought why not do some objective research.

So I was looking at my local gym's website and found average user count chart. I wanted to see if my usual gym time  really was what I think it was or "should be". Or does it have to do with crow mentality. Am I thinking like what "the majority" now thinks is quiet time. Which would make it NOT a Quiet Time. Everyone in the gym says to me, "I like the 10 am time, its very quiet most people are at work".

The Figures say otherwise. You see human perception is not accurate. I used to think gym is busiest around 6 pm. I was right about that. But wrong about how much busier it was compared to what I perceived as Quiet Time. The chart below shows that.

I was also wrong about 10 am in numbers as it's almost the same as 5 pm or 7 pm.
In fact its the PEAK of Wave 3.

Do you see the pattern. It appears that human activities usually create the so called Elliott Wave patterns everywhere. 

Is it by chance or something? 

I don't know. But looking at this chart it certainly seems that way. Lets dive in more and see what's going on.

Wave 1: 3am-5am [2-10 people]
All I see is wave 1 that starts around 3am, (its a 24hr gym) and it peaks around 6-7am.

Wave 2: 6am-7am [40-46 People]
Takes a dive down around 7am. Perhaps those who workout before work begin to leave getting ready.

Wave 3: 7am-10am [40-81 people]
and it starts to pick up sharply (wave 3 of 3) from 8am and peaks around 10am. (I thought 10 was the quietest time). In fact, there are 81 people in the gym around 9am and 10am.

Wave 4: 11am-3pm [51-76 people]
So most people have done  their workouts and now comes the late comers. the closer to lunch period is quite. the trend goes down. 11am, there are less people but still pretty high, 76 people still in the gym. But that's the start of wave 4. The Decline begins here. 3pm is the quietest time. (school run time nobody can workout now) lol

Wave 5: 4pm-7pm (peak at 6pm) [75-100 People]
This is now the busiest time of gym. But whenever I trained at 6pm, my perception was that there must have been 4 times more people compared to 10am. I was wrong. its only a 20% increase on 10am.

The Markets also move in this fashion. This is for some reason, how stuff happens in the universe. WAVES is the Structure of the Universe. (Not Elliott Wave but WAVES). The Crowd behaves, mostly, within the "mean" of the bell curve.

I am having a day off and will return to charts Monday evening / Tuesday Morning. 

Happy Easter Everyone 

Tuesday, 16 April 2019

The DAX Report 16 April 2019 [Know Yourself]

The Morning Session:

It was the usual boring start that is the norm these days on the DAX m5 or M1 chart. Markets just aren't as bombastic as they used to be. But that can change anytime so no worries there.

The Buyers Kicked-In

All of a sudden there were strong buyers in the market. Price shot up. That was my cue. I wait for these volatility spikes. Something that moves the market and shows momentum.

Once that is done all I need to do is wait for AIMS Setup for Entries.

I posted this picture in the chatroom. I'm never sure about a trade. Because if you think about "making sure" you take the right setups to enhance your chances of making money consistently, you do feel uncertain. I think this feeling of uncertainty is the human default position.

The B Trap Setup after a strong move up is a good bet

Trae Management Discipline is KEY:

Now having taken this setup , it was important to stick to the rules. You had to say, ok if it goes up its fine, I'll let it run as much as possible but if it comes down I won't touch it and let it hit stop loss. If you don't do this, you will kill many of your good winning trades.

Know Yourself 

Well, it was not easy for me either. You have to know how to manage the things that make you make mistakes. With experience and keeping a record you begin to understand your own behavioural patterns. I am very impulsive. But I KNOW about it.

So, I engaged myself with the Chatroom where Tomi was sharing his pictures of France from the year 2000. That helped me take my focus away from the screen so that the chart can do its thing. Mind you if it wasn't for @snorms of ATM (advanced trade manager) scrip, that you see on the chart, i won't be able to take my eyes off the chart. AUTOMATION is powerful. 

End Result 20 Points at the risk of 7. 

Friday, 5 April 2019

60 Pips on GBPAUD - The Pound against Aussie Dollar

I saw that the Aussie dollar was mostly gaining and the Pound was shedding pounds. Nothing is certain when it comes to the direction of Sterling against anything under the looming threat of #BREXIT Uncertainty.

Anyway, in my search I found an AIMS Hunt Sell Signal on the Hourly time frame. It was easy for me to take it on M15 because I saw the following picture. This is the Setup 1 Sell Signal. I quickly set PO after taking the picture and sharing it our AIMS Live Trading Room.

GBP/AUD Sell Signal The Amazing Setup 1 

You can see a clear 3 and sideways 4. The Red dot, purple is on the correct side. Wave 5 here we come.

Below you see a HUNT Seed/Cherry  Signal. This is GBP/AUD on the H1 chart. My general scan usually starts at the D1 chart but during the day I only scan the H1 charts. When I see a HUNT signal I then decide whether I should take it on H1 or drop to the M15 chart. This time, the M15 chart looked like a perfect Setup 1. And since Setup 1 is my favourite trading pattern, I took it on M15 and Set Target Point accordingly.

The following picture shows when 1R was hit and SL was moved to Break Even (entry price level). This was achieved by using @snorms ATM Trade Management Software. Link [Highly Recommended]

The Take Profit level is not a random level. It is a measured level and we have learned a simple way to accurately set your target point. It's called the Target Zone 1. More on this inside the Forum.

Today we picked the level pretty accurately, shown below.

Below I will now show how price bounced off as soon as the take profit level was hit and trade was closed. This was not a lucky exit. It was Calculated

I hope you've enjoyed my recent posts and found value in it. If you would like to learn more about our method or would like to trade with us consider joining our Live Trading Room for only $99.

Have a Great Weekend 

I Got it wrong - Paralysis of Analysis

I thought it was not a good setup, but that was yesterday. Today I look at it again and I find two things

1. I was proven wrong
2. It actually did go in that direction and have hit Target Zone 1.

So what can I learn from this? 

That when you see a setup, take the setup. I now conclude that my decision not to take this tradre was wrong because all the indicators were telling me to take the long. I also did not take the follwoing setup on AUD/JPY. Makes me wonder, am I looking at too many pairs? am I doing too much analysis? Paralysis of analysis? 

This is Setup 1 Buy Signal - When you SEE it, TAKE it. Don't think 

Thursday, 4 April 2019

What happened today 4th of April 2019 [Oranges LEAKED]

So you know we trade the DAX on M1/M5 during the London Session. Everyday.

Here is a little trick that will help you avoid some trades. Right at the London Open you already have one important price zone. Do the following and you'll avoid taking a few lower probability signals.

The market did not want to move today. And that was quite expected. Just look at the H1 chart. Its been rising up for 8 days now.

It was too boring until the White House Leaked the "oranges" report.

I had enough and so I hit the Gym. Then this happened.

The Fractal Geometry of the Market is Amazing. AIMS Setup 1 and AIMS The Hunt

The following 2nd setup, in the sequence, was a lot easier to take this morning.
Clean open gator and nice clean setup 1 on m1. but I was out, just took the Seed. and it went and hit 2R like a joke.

Long time ago one of my friends said, Rober (not mueller), 

"The Chart will stop setting up when its stops moving".

later he said that he never said it, that I made it up and attached it to his name. but that's a different story.


The Afternoon Session (US Morning Session)

Right!  so Price went up above the Gator on M5.  but forget that... price broke out of a tight box on m1, in the direction of the m5 chart , that is Upwards... and then it pulled back and created a Seed signal. That's All I wanted.

Right now, at 15 min before NY Equities Open I'm looking at this stuff and I'm thinking, when is it going to crash?

And some Trading Lessons: 

To those who worry, I take the setups that nobody takes or I take the one that does not move, I say just keep taking the setups according to your rules and trade plan. Continue recording your T20's. You will learn how to filter some trades in time. Nothing can beat quality chart time and experience.

... but if you don't take them, worried you might lose. You've lost before you've started.

Take em. if you think its a setup TAKE it
Take em, if it ticks all the boxes , TAKE it.
Take 100 trades, only then you will qualify to make a judgement. You're just an observer before you've actually done it.

Partake in the game then you earn the right to make a judgement.

yes, Sam and I might be able to say, "nah not this setup". but you're new, you can't say that yet. you just look at the rules and TAKE IT. time will teach you ... that's the whole GAME.

meanwhile the Seed is just 5 points away from 2R Profit.

the EASIEST way to trade for me is have my charts m5/m1 split and trade. but it gets boring at times.

  • Support Resistance, is Shit,
  • Price Action is King is Shit,
  • Trend Lines is Shit,

Trading your method based on 3-4 indicators is THE WAY forward.

No matter how many great traders I dug up, spoken to or met in person or found on youtube, they all have some sort of trading system they religiously follow. Take Linda Raschke for instance. She is a discretionary trader yet she has done more modelling on different markets. She follows her method based on a few indicators she's used all her life, specially the 3/10 oscillator.

Whether its on naked charts, charts with indicators, or indicators without a chart.

YOU HAVE to follow your trading rules. and I have given you those. time tested rules. FOLLOW them or STOP. 

It's all about Sticking to the Rules, Following your Plan. Consistency is the Key. Patience and Hard Core Discipline.

The Setup 1 on DOW M1 Later Today 
You saw breakout , strong breakout at NY Open. Wait for Setup 1

There is a Setup but I Don't want to take it

Trading is an art based on a science. Yes, this is a quite difficult concept to grasp, for most, I assume.

While a trading edge must be scientifically verified. It must be a strategy that is quantifiable. Something that is not merely a product of a trader's personal interpretation only. It must be based on solid rules and guidelines that anyone else can verify.

But as time passes and you begin to understand yourself and the market, you create your own trading style. Depending on the path you chose and the experiences you had traders fall into two categories. Discretionary traders or otherwise.

Successful trading is more of an art than science. That is certainly true for a vast majority of traders. Any edge that can be put down as an algorithm, don't need a trader.

There is a setup on EUR/NZD H1 chart. 

I don't want to take it for reasons I have allowed myself to use when I want to. So it's something that is my trade plan, yet I have the freedom to choose. I'm the #realDonaldTrump of my trading plan. However, I truly am in control or my trading. lol 

The following chart shows Setup 1 long on the cross of EUR/NZD.

Its suggesting that there is a possibility that price might break above the box to the up side. there is a 33% chance that it might drop back to below the box low, a 33% chance that it might go up at least the same length as the box and another 33% chance that it might go double that distance. That's Setup 1 Trading Edge. 2:1 Reward to Risk with 66% win rate (including BE trades)

Yet I don't want to take this setup. Because I don't like the odds that the D1 chart shows me. Why? The D1 chart is showing a Down Trend but it also show that it could be ending and reversing to upside. I might be wrong, I'll soon find out. This is TRADING. 

Below we have D1 Chart of EUR/NZD, as you can see, its going down. So its Not very high probability for me to take the Long on H1. 

EUR/NZD D1 Trending down. But notice that sharp strong bull candle. That could be A up, followed by the zig zag B down and we could now see a C up. (The C up would be 5 up on H1)

Below we see GBP/NZD creating a Setup 2 long signal.

Below we have GBP/NZD H4 Chart, A nice Cherry Signal Long

Finally we have below The D1 Chart. This is Clearly not going up, its going sideways and its boxed. I don't fancy such charts.

Ps: check this post to get update: 

Wednesday, 3 April 2019

Trading Report 3rd April 2019 [LESSON LEARNT]

Well the morning started with a trade on the M5 time frame.
I don't look at the market before London Open but today it had formed a setup 1 on the M5 time frame. I took the trade.

Once the trade was taken, I had no reason to look for a setup on m1. So did not trade on m1.

That went ok during the morning session but the market, later setup another Setup 1 during the US Session. And I played it with slight bias from the H1 chart. I thought it was extended and correction was possible. Which lead to a mistake.

DAX M5 Setup 1 Long - Entry - Looks Pretty Good  - THIS SETUP 1

I was looking at the levels to the left, which was peak of wave 3 and also peak of H1 chart. US News came out as well. Market was doing its usual "US SESSION" noise. I squeezed the oxygen out of my trade.

As soon as I saw marketing rejecting the Highs, I used M1 chart to Exit on Box Trail

So here is the lesson. I tried to play this trade with a bit of extra caution. I was trying ot be "clever". Its ok. This is how I trade. This time it did not work for me. But I learn my lesson. Which is, I should try to TRUST THE SETUP ONE. Let it do its thing. That would be much better in the longer term.

Later I saw the original plan was good. It hit TP 2% profit but I was out agest ago. 

ps: These are the Screenshot I share with my friends in our AIMS Live Trading Room. I chose some of them and share with everyone else. 

Tuesday, 2 April 2019

How to Trade The DAX M1 - London Session

First Step: Premarket Prep

The H1 chart and its role:

Before I start taking trades on the M1 chart. I need to know what is the market doing as a whole. For that I would look at the D1 chart, have a quick wave analysis. But then drop to hourly chart. That's where analysis begins.

What is the Trend on the Hourly Chart. Is it going up or down. Is it Wave 3 or 5? is it boxed tightly. The hourly chart may not trend on a daily basis. At times its in its respective 4th wave or it has no direction or trend. but at times, its slowly and clearly going towards an "identifiable" measured objective. i.e A TZ1 or a D1 Box high or Low.

DAX30 H1 Chart - Purple box indicate the boxed marked going sideways

e.g. DAX H1 has been trending up during the last 2 days.  But before we look at the last 2 days we have to talk about the 28th of march. That was the sideeways day. Gator was sleeping on h1. and purple was inside the box... totally sideways box.

The 29th of march brought some movement. and after the weekend, it started with a new month new orders new flare for life...

Although it went up and it continues to go up today, it did go through its "dead" period during the london open session. The market WAVE analysis is a powerful way to "understand" the structure and what is the structure of the structure of the structure ?

Now, WE know that eWave is one subjective yet at times quite measurable even objective structure of the market. The WAVE.

That structure has an underlying structure called the Fractal., the BOX, AIMS Box Indicator is the structure of the structure.

but the structure under all this is "ORDERS"
buy and sell orders. and volume of those orders.

When there are more/larger volume of BUY orders, the price starts to rise (in case of na index its the underlying stocks that moves because people are investing in those markets or divesting out of t hose markets).

so on the H1 chart, when we see the market is Trending up, i.e. Gator open to up side, the slope of the lines is up, 3 lines detached from each other, AO is creating a peak, histogram is green above ZL and box is stepping upwards. this means,

  1. the buy orders are exceeding the sell order and there is more demand in the market. 
  2. this also means that the path of least resistance is up for this moment in time. 
  3. and it means that on the lower time frames, there will be "bigger" up moves compared to down moves.

The London Session Today

The market opened with a spike up but that was soon killed by the sellers and market went back to where it broke from. Later the following happened.
the M5 chart complete noise

So right now as I see the market, 3 hrs after the London Open, the Gator on M5 is open, price clearly going up. ONLY THEN do I trade this market in UP direction We were keen on trading the dax today but nothing was setting up. Soon the market boxed itself.

but I want this to happen within my 3 hrs of trading. from LO to 11am uk.
if it does not happen within that period, its fine. i'm ok with that. I'll come back next day. and that is it. e.g. it happened within my trading time yesterday. The following picture shows where we trade the dax on m1. The Gator on M5 is Open, and M1 kept giving us buy signals. H1 was trending up (As a result of this)

Study this chart if you want to understand Fractal Geometry of the Markets 

  • I want to know if market is Trending up or down on h1.
  • I want to know if market is trending up or down on m5.
  • I want to know if there is a setup in that direction on m1.
  • and i want that within the First 15 min , then the first hr, then the first 2 hrs of the london session. 
IF it starts to move, I will continue to trade it until i assess that nothing more is left in this market. or I've hit my loss or profit targets .

Do I look for  100% Clarity?

10 years of trading , to date , I have not found absolute clarity if I should take this trade or not, nor have I found absolute confidence about whether it's going this way or that. But do know this,

THINK in terms of 20 TRADES. that's all I know.
Embrace Uncertainty but Quantify It
I don't know the result of this next trade, but I have a good idea of what might happen at the end of the next 20 Trades. [THIS IS A MILLION DOLLAR TRADING SECRET]

Don't think why Steve or Sam is long or short. Think, where is my setup, and whether I should take it or not. its all about YOU.

IS THIS A SETUP? that's my question.

50 Time Tested Trading Rules [MUST READ]

50 Time Tested Classic Stock Trading Rules by Linda Raschke

--- These are not just 50 lines from a good writer. These are time tested, rules written by someone who's experienced it all over 3 decades of time.
It's literally Gems of Wisdom and a Good Read too!!! ---
I read about Linda Raschke in the trading classics book Market Wizards by Jack Schwager. If you have not read Market Wizard series, I highly recommend it.

1. Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
2. Keep records of your trading results.
3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
4. Don’t take the market home.
5. Continually set higher trading goals.

6. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
7. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
8. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
9. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
10. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.

11. Limit your losses – use stops!
12. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
13. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
14. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
15. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.

16. Losses make the trader studious – not profits.
Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.

17. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control.
Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.

18. Always discipline yourself by following a predetermined set of rules.

19. Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.

20. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.

21. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.

22. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.

23. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.

24. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.

25. The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.

26. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.

27. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.

28. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.

29. Accept failure as a step towards victory.

30. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.

31. One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.

32. The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.

33. It’s much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.

34. If a market doesn’t do what you think it should do, get out.

35. Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.

36. Never add to a losing position.

37. Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.

38. You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.

39. In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be – up or down.

40. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

41. Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.

42. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.

43. Standing aside is a position.

44. It is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.

45. If you don’t know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.

46. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.

47. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won’t continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.

48. When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!

49. Lose your opinion – not your money.

50. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.

When is it too late or too early to buy a pullback? 

In order to answer this question first ….  Let’s quickly do some repetition. Let’s quickly do some repetition.  Let’s throw in some trading ...