Tuesday, 10 December 2019

Is there a Magic Pattern that makes money in the market over and over

Is there a Magic Pattern that Makes Money Consistently? 


I was not feeling well today. Also feeling a bit of anxiety. No specific reason. It's just the weather here in the UK. It can be stressing for no apparent reason.

I all of a sudden thought I need to talk about this pattern, so I was looking at the Dow Jones the US 30 chart. And throughout the day. I've been monitoring it.

You do see a pattern that repeats itself on different dimensions different time frames and everything so if you're looking for a daily chart, it's there,  if you're looking for a weekly chart, it's there. So no matter what type of job you do or lifestyle you have or which time zone you live in, you can use this pattern.

You can trade using the time frame of the chart, that suits your lifestyle. And this pattern will appear there so let's suppose you only have 15-20 minutes a day, so the best time frame for you would be the daily chart.

And the if you can only spare half an hour to an hour once a week, then your time frame is the weekly timeframe.  And if you can actually trade on swing basis and you have a few hours here and there randomly then you can trade the four hour chart or the daily chart.

And for those of us who are lucky enough to have spare time throughout the day, especially people who are working from home or if they are self-employed or their jobs are in a way that they can actually stop and  trade. Then they can trade intraday and they will button in the pattern is it fascinates me?

Because it's been there and it's always available.

The pattern is really simple to identify. All you have to do is this.
1. Wait for the AO indicator which we have or the aims wave,  wait for it to create the highest or lowest peak within the lookback period of 100 candles/bars to the left.
2. After the peak, the market starts to lose momentum. The AIMS Wave bars start to go back nearer to the Centre Zero Line. So after the wait for it to come back to the zero line
3. Once it's there, you will see that the box will tighten the gator will steep inside.
4.  And then from there it will break out again in the direction of the previous peak.

And so every time it does that it it will do something that will amaze you for years to come. It will BLOW YOUR MIND AWAY every time.

It does this eighty percent of the time. Yes seriously  it does that
.

I look at it and I. I am speechless. I'm like, wow every time I've been saying it for like eight nine years now ten years. 

Yet I can't get over it such a beautiful pattern. You have got to look at it. And this is what it is. WATCH THE VIDEO TO FIND OUT

Regards

 Immy  Yousafzai

WATCH VIDEO NOW: https://youtu.be/3MBFrxomsPM
 
Discover the Magic Pattern that Makes Money in the Market over and over and over again 
Copyright © 2019 iTradeAIMS.com, All rights reserved.

The First Question: Podcast Episode #1 [What pattern to trade?]




Auto Transcript


Hello and welcome to my Sunday podcast. So today I'm going to talk about something that has been bothering me for a while. I have talked about it in some of my videos from time to time. But this is something that everyone asks about. They are confused about it, but the reality is we shouldn't be confused about this the way we are confused about it because it's very simple.

So the question is, why are people getting confused when it is very simple? That is because it's got two faces. It's like a coin.

So it's the same thing, but you can look at either side of it. So the face that we see is the common one, which everyone comes across.And the problem is that we have to switch our brain, the way we think about it. And only then we're able to see it. We need  to flip this coin and see the other side of it.

So, there are patterns in the market that we trade and we trade those patterns based on the belief that it will make us money. But what I've noticed is that everyone generalizes the idea. And they take the decision based on emotions, so they take emotional decisions, but fails to see the logic behind it.

Now, it's a great thing to have a pattern. But the ability for you to have the motivation to trade the pattern you have to understand the logic behind it as well. While the emotional reason for trading that pattern is to actually to get the emotional benefits from it. Which is "I want to trade this pattern because over the period of time it's gonna make me money."

The logical reason is that this. Pattern has a statistical advantage, which means that if you traded a hundred times then there's a higher probability that you will win more. i.e. The sum total of all your winning trades will be more than the total of all the losing trades. It does not mean that all 100 trades are gonna be winners.

What is the Win Rate of this method
It states that based on testing last 30 years of data and thousands of patterns. Identified. We have a certain advantage and to simplify it we have a 66% win rate where 33% is a loss rate. So in any 100 trades and if you trade 1%, you will lose 33% of your account.

Winning Trades: 
But 66% of the time you will win. And out of the 66% you will win about 40% of the time (i.e not to say 40% of 66% but rather 66%-40%) So 40% of your trades will be winners. Each trade will have a profit of 2%.

Breakeven Tradess: 
The rest of the 26% trades out of the 66% winners will be your breakeven trades. So, you will not lose money, but you won't make much money as well.


Losing Trades: 
So overall You will win 66% of trades on average. The system will lose 30 to 35% of trades.

So if you compare the highest percentage of losing trades in that hundred trades batch with the lowest range then you will probably make 15 to 20% profit. But if you had the best month with higher win rates and lowest loss rate, let's say you had 30% of losing trades. That will account to 30 percent loss based on 1% risk per trade.

So, if you had 40%  winners. Every winner will be 2% winner. So overall you will have 80% account growth. Less the 30% losses. You will be left with a total of 50% account growth. Who would want to trade a system like this?. I know I will.

It's going to be something like this, so let's suppose you traded or backtested a thousand trades. Then you went on and checked batches of 100 trades. You will find that some of the 100 trades batches will have 40 to 35 percent winners and others will have 40 - 45 percent.

So the average of the 100 trades gyrates within a range. So it's all different so when I say 66 percent, it means it's the average of all the 10 batches within the 1000 trades. Also t sometimes you even have 70 percent win rate or sometimes it would drop to about 60 percent win rate and that doesn't invalidate this.

The point is that you need to try to understand these probabilities.  Understanding these simple probabilities fulfills the logical side of the argument.

If you don't try to understand this. And only go by the emotional side of trading then  what happens is that when you go through the thing that we call a losing streak, then it becomes a bigger problem.

An emotional problem. You have bad emotions involved into it and you have to then take a decision based on your emotions, that's where you need your logical side to kick in to say look. If you are emotional you would be survive the phase if you have an equally stronger logical side.

What is a Losing Streak?
Those of you who don't understand losing streak: It simply means that for every given set of events, let's say a hundred or a thousand events, there will always a probability of a series of consecutive winners or losers. And it's not that hard to find out.



If you know the win rate of a system you can actually find out what is the probability of a five six seven or ten losing trades streak. Based on our analysis there is quite a high probability of having three winners or three three losers.

And  a lower probability of having five or six winners or losers in a row. As the number goes up the probability decreases.

So is it possible to have ten losers in a row? Yes, it is possible. However the probability of that is quite lower than twenty percent but that doesn't mean it won't happen. It can happen. But the opposite of it can also happen. The likelihood of 10 consecutive winners is actually higher.

Risk Management is Crucial:
And because we know that there is chance of this happening we must do everything in our powers to minimise the damage. Every system has a potential of doing some damage. The line that separates pros from amateurs is that the amteur trader does not prepare of this eventuality and ends up "dead in a ditch".

 Whereas the professional has prepared for this possible outcome. And that is the definition of Risk Management.

Important to understand:
is that if it's a possibility then you have to have something in your trade plan to protect against it.

So that means that if you lose ten trades in a row and risk per trade was one percent the account will be down ten percent.

But imagine this, suppose you just had a  batch of  100 trades. Your account went up fifty percent and then the next batch you had ten losing trades now you're down to 40 percent, but if you look at the overall thing, you're still up by 40 percent, so it doesn't really hurt you much. You are emotionally padded.

It only hurts when you were already down. Unfortunately there is a higher probability of this happening for beginners. Because in the beginning you probably would lose discipline far easily.

That is because of your emotional state.  Because you are not used to trading much. The more emotional you are the more prone to mistakes you are so there are two things happening. One you're getting highly emotionally charged and that's leading to the 2nd which is losing discipline. And that leads to increased likelihood of losing streaks.

The probability of you losing discipline  resulting into a losing streak is different from the system's own natural losing streaks. So the system can have its own natural win or loss streak without you losing discipline and this is the important thing that we talk about in our T20 challenge so more on this later and now.

I wish you all have a great rest of the Sunday our Sunday is gone and we are ready for probably the final week of trading this year see you later.

Monday, 9 December 2019

Ep2-Market Secrets Podcast- The Guy with the jag






 Transcript:

Episode #2. The Jaguar guy

Hello and welcome to the second ever episode of the Trading Secrets podcast. I'm your host Immy Yousafzai from ITradeAIMS.com.

So once upon a time I wanted to make money. Which is always the case.And I went on the search. I remember I had I had an eBay account and I was buying and selling things.

A colleague of mine who used to talk about one of his friends who used to drive a Jaguar and that Jag used to be my favorite car at that time. So I asked him, "how did you buy that car"?  and he used to say it's a funny story.

The funny thing was that every time you saw him he always had a friend so he never actually drove the car. And so I said, "why do I always find you sitting on the other side?".

I was wondering if it it really was his car. He laughed and said "actually I made money and bought this car but I still don't know how to drive a car".

Shocking.  He was in his early 20s. Now this guy had simply found a way to sell things that people wanted to buy.

A way to sell a digital radios at that time. Not sure if he was importing them from China or buying the digital radios from a wholesaler. In either case they were chinese products.

And he was selling those. Yeah!  that was the time when the whole of Britain was changing from the analog to digital DAB radios.  He made a killing?

I mean his product was probably cost him eight to nine quids but he was selling them for 40 or 60 quid so that was pretty good.

And I think the idea was not a dropshipping one but it was that he knew where to source the product.

And the easiest way to sell them was eBay.

I tried that but I couldn't find a product like that. I mean,  you have to be either lucky or something or you do your research to find what the people want and you could deliver. 

We did find a few funny things that is a story from some other day. I used to sell hmmm... errrr

I used to have a market stall.

I've never told this before. I never talked about this. I used to have... hmmm errr

I'll tell that story some other day.

So I asked this friend. How does he drive this jaguar and found out that he actually does that and so that gave me an idea? I started selling on ebay as well. But what to sell?

That's when I found the idea of dropshipping. Buy stuff and somebody else delivers it for you that was like a very interesting idea. Btw that's way back in 2005, so I was into the dropshipping thing way back then.

These days if you go to youtube, it's everywhere. They talk about dropshipping and all that. With the flashy cars and big houses (rented).

And at that time I was doing it so I think the easiest thing for me was to find out something that was easy you can send it easily.

And so I found some online course a DVD of something and. This company had those DVDs and they would send it. So you buy them for two or three quid and they sell it for seven or eight pounds, so you had this little bit of profit. So it's kind of automatic.

I was working at the time so I would come home. I will log into the website and find out I had a few orders. I will then go their website and order these. And they will deliver it their address.

So it's literally like,  you get an order through eBay, it gets sold then you go to that other website and you send it you don't put their details into it, they just write that it's from you. Simple.

And then my account got blocked. One morning. I wake up and my eBay account gone. And what is fascinating, is that eBay literally had no support.

I mean they just at that time at least I remember there was literally no way to talk to anybody you cannot call them or anything and if you send them an email about this account getting blocked, they'll just be sent an automatic reply.

You may try many many times. You just come with the same stuff. So  I asked them what's going on and they would say okay fill this form and fax it luckily I was working in an office.

Yeah, so I used the office fax machine and send the form to them.

I never recovered my account. I was like, you know, this is rubbish. I mean, you can lose your business just like that. And that's when I go back my old fever of trading the stocks.

I never traded the stocks before 2006, but my education was management based so  I understood what was a promissory note and what was a bond. In college we learned the types of shares. We did some financial statement analysis and stuff so it was always an idea that was very attractive for me

I had an appeal because you want to own a piece of a big organization. This is very attractive idea. Own a tiny fraction of Google or Amazon. How fascinating. I own apple. Not the product but the company. haha

And if it goes up in value overtime.  Imagine if I had bought some of the stock in Apple at that time or Google. All I had to do was simply let those stock be. it would have turned into a lot of money by now.

In my search I came across a few systems there are a few more stories in between but today I'm just gonna talk about this one system that I came across the name was good it was kind of different it had some connotation to an animal in it it was a dog yeah, oh yeah.

I'll say it it was called the black dog system. I was trading it. I really liked that system. I think I still like it the system was very simple and it's very. Similar to what I trade even now. I think Dave Atkinson who designed it. He either designed it or modelled it based on Bill Williams System.

So you have a 50 moving average and you have a 10 20 McD and then you had your entry alerts and it was pretty simple so the idea was very nice and he had a storytelling kind of style which I really liked and he had this PDF files you can download and you go to the forum and the whole story is in the forum.

Where So the reason I really like the system was that firstly it was going for 297 dollar or something.

I still remember here is the reason I really liked the method. On the salespage, they told you that it had 3 trading systems. Which I later find out that it was kinda true. The three system were a progression.

You start with something and then you kind of update it learn from it and then you start another one so you give it a different name and then you improve further on it and you change it a bit so give it a third name so that was the three systems.

By the time I joined nobody was trading the first system, which was probably very slow or most probably highly filtered and those were those arrows they used to appear on the chart they used to call it the The black dog and then the SES. Standard Entry System I think...

So there was like the trend indicator and then the entry signal. It was pretty simple.

But I had Identified something that appealed to me more. It was something that told me something was happening in the market. You see,  I saw a pattern  while  looking at those charts. And then one day  I found this indicator they they called it support and resistance indicator.

I got into the indicator.  I had the MQL4 code for it. I modified it and I wanted to see a shaded area between the two support and resistance lines.

It was showing horizontal lines on the screen so I called it aims levels and that just changed the way I traded. It was the first edition of AIMS Boxes.

I saw the market differently. I found out that you don't want to be trading when the market is inside that zone that gray zone. And so that proved a lot but that did not fit well in the forum that I was in and. So a lot of people kind of liked it and it was very disruptive.

Some people like this and people didn't like it. The one person who didn't like it probably was the owner of the system because I was getting a lot of attention and they knew what I was trading. I didn't know what I was doing and you'd be probably shocked or maybe you laugh at what I'm about to say.

I did not know what a FRACTAL was. That box I created was a fractal box, which we call The AIMS Boxes. And that just resulted in something. Really dramatic which I will probably tell you in the next episode. So, I hope you enjoyed this talk.

I don't know why I'm doing this but I just you know, I just want to record my thoughts and if you like it then please let me know.

So hopefully tomorrow I'll talk about some. Think about the box and how I met somebody who changed the box and this box has a story to tell. Bye now.

Are Automated Forex Systems the secret to getting the most of the market?

Are Automated Foreign Exchange Systems (a.k.a expert advisors or bots)  the secret to making the most out of foreign trading currency markets.?

Foreign Exchange Trading: Opportunities Lost and Gained

Forex trading (the buying and selling of one currency against an additional to maximize ever-changing currency worths) never ever sleeps. With just extremely minor exemptions on the weekend, Foreign exchange trading is ongoing in some time area, in some nation of the world. There is no opening or closing bell on the Forex market.

Naturally, the Forex market is structured in a way that welcomes investing missteps and also missed chances. Because markets are opening and shutting constantly, changes to the market are happening constantly, as well as unless you are a person that never ever, ever before sleeps or eats, the potential for you to miss out (or worse, lose out) is ever-present.

The only method to level the playing field in your favor is to use a Semi-automated Foreign exchange trading system to do your work for you. In fact, these systems are the very tools the pros use to make sure that they never ever miss a money trading beat.



Foreign Exchange Semi-Automated Trading Systems Explained


Semi-Automated Foreign exchange trading systems are used to deal on the Foreign exchange markets any time of the day; that means that you can still delight in ideal Forex trading and get on with the rest of your life.

Semi-Automated Forex systems (algorithms) work according to your trading instructions. On your own, or with the help of a trading mentor, you set the criteria of your Foreign exchange trading program and advise the system to move accordingly. The guidelines that you make use of to set your system, your trading instructions are signals to specific points of entry as well as leave right into markets.

A variety of specifications can be set within your Semi-automated Forex trading system. You can define cost patterns, market patterns (such as fading or counter patterns, complying with patterns, or outbreak trends), price factors, standards, technological indications, price level proximity and also such as your guidelines for trading. The system will certainly after that utilize the specifications to develop an algorithm that will certainly work automatically on your behalf-- whenever of the day or night, any type of day of the year in any market the world over.

Enhance Foreign Exchange Trading With Semi-Automated Forex Trading Systems



By now, no doubt you've seen a theme; Semi-automated Foreign exchange Trading Solutions manage your money trading portfolio regularly. They trade specifically as you would if you had the ability to not do anything else but rest by your computer system as well as take care of trades all day as well as evening long, all week and year long. With a great automatic Foreign exchange system, there is no worry that you will miss a crucial financial investment chance or bail-out factor overnight or while at the office; and there are no hounding call at inconvenient times from your broker who needs prompt instruction. This is the most vital advantage of Forex trading with automatic Foreign exchange trading systems, and also the very best factor to use one.

However the benefits of Semi-automated Forex trading systems are not restricted to their "always on" capacities. Semi-Automated Foreign exchange systems additionally take a lot of the human element-- that element that is so oft responsible for gaps in heat-of-the-moment judgments, out of the trading equation.

Semi-Automated Forex systems take the tension and emotion out of currency trading choices. Guesswork as well as area for analysis are gotten rid of; fear and also greed are removed; trusted, predictable progress is what continues to be; in the end, all you see is the results.

To sum it up, Semi-automated Foreign exchange trading systems take the least advantageous aspects of the human side of trading out of the procedure, and also replaces it with reliable, specific currency trading instruction.

In a money market that is constantly advancing, the only way to take full advantage of outcomes is to let this modern innovation benefit you.

Semi-Automated Forex systems enable you to thoroughly analyze your very own trading design ahead of time and also layout the system that functions the most effective for you. You can customize your trading to your very own risk resistance levels, which are inputted right into your system. In so doing, the duty for making pressured choices on-the-spot in an ever before transforming market is eliminated.

Sunday, 8 December 2019

What is the First Question: The First Episode of Podcast






Episode #1: The Big Question

Hello and welcome to my Sunday podcast. So today I'm going to talk about something that has been bothering me for a while. I have talked about it in some of my videos from time to time. But this is something that everyone asks about. They are confused about it, but they reality is we shouldn't be confused about this the way we are confused about it because it's very simple.

So the question is, why are people getting confused when it is very simple? That is because it's got two faces. It's like a coin. So it's the same thing, but you can look at either side of it. So the face that we see is the common one which everyone comes across and the problem is that we have to switch our brain the way we think about it and only then we're able to we will be able to flip this coin and see the other side of it.

And that is. If this certain so there are patterns in the market that we trade and we trade those patterns based on the belief that it will make us money. But what I've noticed is that everyone generalizes the idea. And they take the decision based on emotions, so they're taken emotional decision, but fail to look at the logic of it.

Now, it's a great thing to have a pattern. But the ability for you to have the motivation to trade the pattern you have to logically understand it as well and the reason for that is that while the emotional reason for portraying that pattern is to actually get the emotional benefits from it, which is I want to trade this pattern because over the period of time it's gonna make me money.

The logical reason is that this. Pattern has a statistical advantage, which means that if you traded a hundred times then there's a higher probability that you will win more the sum total of all your winning trades will be more total of all the losing trades. It does not mean that all 100 trades are gonna be winners.

It states that based on testing last 30 years of data and thousands of patterns. Identified. We have a certain advantage and to simplify it we have a 66% win rate where 33% is a loss rate so in any 100 trades and if you trade 1%, you will lose 33% of your account.

But 66% of the time you will win out of the 66% about 40% of the time you will win when you will have profit of 2% so that's 80% in the rest of them, you will not lose money, but you won't make much money as well, so you will make 80% or 60% at the lowest from your.

Winning trades and you will lose 30 to 35% from you losing trades, so if you have the highest amount of losing trades in that hundred. Trades batch and the lowest then you will probably make 15 to 20%, but if you had the best month where you'll have the losing the losing side is the lowest let's say you had 30% of losing trade that 30%.

30 points loss, and and if you had the best obviously if you're 30 and you have the best side yeah, let's say a 40% of the trades work winners, you would have made 80% so 80 minus 30, there will be 50% so your wins per every 100 trades per and most probably per 120 every 20 trades.

It's going to be something like this, so let's suppose you traded a thousand trades and then you went on and checked every. Every 100 trades you will find that some of the 100 trades batch will have 40 35 percent winners and others will have 40 45 percent so it's all different so when I say 6 to 6 percent it's the average of all that sometimes you even have 70 percent win rate or sometimes it would drop to about 60 percent win rate and that doesn't invalidate this so if you don't try to understand this.

And only go on the emotional side what happens is that when you go through the thing that we call a losing streak, then it becomes a problem you have bad emotions involved to it and you have to then take a decision based on your emotions, that's where you need your logical side to kick in to say look.

We understand the losing stream and for those of you who don't understand losing streak, it's this that for every given set of events, let's say a hundred or a thousand events, there will be there is a probability of a streak of winners in a streak of losers and it's not that hard to find out.

If you know the wind rate of a system you can actually find out what is the probability of a five six seven or ten losing trades streak so based on our analysis there is quite a high probability of having three winners or three three losers. And slower probability of having five or six winners or losers in a row and as the number goes up the probability the decreases so is it possible to have ten losers in a row yes it is possible how often the probability of that is quite lower than twenty percent but that doesn't mean it won't happen it can happen and so what do you do and the reason for that is you you do your risk management correctly.

So you you're saying okay can I take as you have to prepare for this so if it's a possibility then you have to have something in your trade plan so that means that if you lose ten trades in a row and if you risk one percent in every trade you'll be down ten percent but imagine this you just had a one batch where you increase your account by fifty percent and then the next batch you had ten losing trades now you're down to 40 percent, but if you look at the overall thing, you're still up by 40 percent, so it doesn't really hurt you much.

It only hurts when by chance when you start trading and there is a higher probability of this happening in the beginning it's because you probably would lose discipline because of your emotional state because you are not used to trading much so that so the more emotional you are the more prone to mistakes you are so there are two things so.

The probability of you losing discipline can having a losing streak that's a different thing it's a separate thing to the valid streak of the system so the system can have its own streak without you losing discipline and this is the important thing that we talk about in our T20 challenge so more on this later and now.

I wish you all have a great rest of the Sunday our Sunday is gone and we are ready for probably the final week of trading this year see you later.

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